Ekins Guinness has developed a data-driven framework for identifying investment opportunities and risks. It covers asset allocation, sector and regional equity selection, bond markets, currencies and commodities. We use our measurements and models to manage two funds, and also provide investment strategy ideas to professional investors.

Our investment approach is based on a rules-based interpretation of value and price trends, which we consider to be the two most important measurements for global investing. The importance of Value is self-evident but often markets do not follow value in the short term – it is a more important measurement for the medium/long term, and especially when extreme. Price trends (including overbought and oversold measurements) are better indicators of future market direction but can be dangerous if Value is ignored (otherwise, for example, one might follow a rising price trend into a valuation bubble). Value and trends work best when combined. We use trends primarily to dictate whether to be long/short or over/underweight, and we use value primarily to dictate position sizing.

The result is an objective framework for global investing. It is logical and systematic, thus avoiding opinion, emotion and forecasting. It also avoids style bias – the investment focus changes according to market conditions and opportunity.