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Decoding lead conversion

How decisions are really made

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by 3rd-eyes analytics
| 14/11/2025 21:00:00

Over recent articles we have looked at what drives growth in wealth management—and why it must be designed, not left to chance. We covered lead generation and revenue growth from existing clients: purposeful operating models, behavioural strategy and value-based pricing. We argued for goal-based advice over product push, and for seamless digital channels. In the last article, Martin Janzen from Ntsal showed how generative AI is reshaping touchpoints: visibility and trust must be designed and earned.

One of my long-standing passions is offering design. In Untapped opportunities I focused on behavioural design to lift revenue within the existing base. What I did not cover was the design of lead conversion—the moment where the prospect decides to become a client. That design choice matters.

Why it matters - the simple math of conversion

Consider a wealth manager with 100 advisers. Each creates 40 proposals a year (roughly one per working week). Average prospect assets: CHF 1m. RoA: 100 bps.

An increase of 10 percentage points in conversion (e.g., from 30% to 40%) yields:

  • 100 × 40 = 4,000 proposals
  • +10% ⇒ +400 additional won proposals
  • Revenue per won proposal equals CHF 10k in recurring fees
  • Revenue upside: 400 × CHF 10k = CHF 4m in recurring fees

No further explanation required.

The phantom of the past

During my studies and for decades, the homo oeconomicus was the ultimate economic model and the basis for decision-making. This archetype represents a perfectly rational creature with full knowledge and transparency, who is willing to spend unlimited time comparing all purchase options with mathematical precision and who never lets emotions cloud their judgement.

The problem? Homo oeconomicus does not exist. In real life, we are—as Dan Ariely put it — predictably irrational. Read his book! Context, framing, effort, risk, social proof and timing shape outcomes at least as much as price or features.

This is what reality looks like

About a decade ago, a study about client decision-making was conducted spanning thousands of consumers across multiple countries. The goal? To truly understand how clients make decisions. The background: questioning the rational decision-making process of homo oeconomicus. The result is clear: five decision archetypes emerged. These represent reliable patterns of how buyers resolve uncertainty and act.

To maximise lead conversion, offering design must address these archetypes. There are two important implications:

1. Sellers influence the distribution. Your offering design influences the distribution of these archetypes—the system is dynamic.

2. People shift archetypes by context. The way you buy a commodity verus a service is normally based on a different criteria set.

Think about how you make decisions when buying commodities like cleaning utensils in contrast to buying your equipment for your favourite sports or hobby.

If lead generation depends on design, so do decisions. I will unpack the five archetypes and the specific levers for each in the next article—with practical examples. Stay tuned.

Read the original article here.